The Libertarian Effect

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 I am not sure how many people were aware of this, but there was a legitimate 3rd party candidate on the ballot in all 50 states this election. Jo Jorgensen was nominated by the Libertarian Party along with VP Spike Cohen. I realize this may come as a shock to some due to a severe lack of coverage of her campaign. The Libertarian Party has nominated a candidate every presidential election for the last 52 years. The party averaged 1% or less of the vote in every election until the nomination of Gary Johnson in 2016. Johnson finished with 3.28% of the popular vote. This is an important number. Remember it. You probably remember Johnson from his viral weed heart attack. If you haven't seen the video, it's worth the time. Johnson was involved in several debates, but none against either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. He was shut out of the last debate after the threshold was set at 15% polling. He was at 7% and probably would of climbed higher in polling had he been allowed to debate. We will stop there as this is not Gary Johnson's story. The importance of Gary Johnson is in his percentage of the popular vote in 2016. He received 3.28%. According to the Federal Election Committee, any party's candidate who receives at least 5% of the popular vote will receive public funding for their campaign the following election.. That brings us back to Jo Jorgensen. She holds two doctorates, has great presence, and is not an old white man. She received almost no press, no debate appearances(COVID-19 contributed to this), and many people were unaware she was running. This resulted in another popular vote percentage around 1%. (Approximate because not all states are done counting as I write this at 6:45 PM, November 4th, 2020). This begs the question what would of happened in a non COVID-19 election where Jo gets the same exposure as Gary did. If Jo Jorgensen is allowed to campaign like Johnson, it is reasonable to think that the exposure would allow her to match the votes Gary Johnson received. How would that affect the results? I am going to look at 6 battleground states. For the purpose of this exercise, I am going to assume that she would be "stealing" votes from Trump. "Current" is where the count is currently, "Projected" is where it would be had Jorgensen received the same percentage as Johnson in 2016.

Georgia

Current %'s: Trump 49.9 Biden 48.8 Jorgensen 1.2

Projected %'s: Trump 48.1 Biden 48.8 Jorgensen 3.0

North Carolina

Current %'s: Trump 50.1 Biden 48.7 Jorgensen 0.9

Projected %'s: Trump 48.5 Biden 48.7 Jorgensen 2.7

Nevada

Current %'s: Trump 48.7 Biden 49.3 Jorgensen 0.9

Projected %'s: Trump 46.5 Biden 49.3 Jorgensen 3.3

Michigan

Current %'s: Trump 48.6 Biden 49.9 Jorgensen 1.1

Projected %'s: Trump 46.1 Biden 49.9 Jorgensen 3.6

Wisconsin

Current %'s: Trump 48.9 Biden 49.6 Jorgensen 1.2

Projected %'s: Trump 46.5 Biden 49.6 Jorgensen 3.6

Pennsylvania

Current %'s: Trump 51.4 Biden 47.5 Jorgensen 1.2

Projected %'s: Trump 50.2 Biden 47.5 Jorgensen 2.4

This would of given Biden wins outright in 4 out of 6 states and likely wins Nevada also. So why would the DNC or Biden be against having Jo at the debates? I'm going to dive into the hypothetical realm quite a bit here. Hypothetically, the CPD allows Jo to participate in both presidential debates. Jo would definitely attack both Trump and Biden, but her message is going to resonate more with likely Trump voters. However, she would also have appeal for Biden voters, especially among minorities with her positions on criminal justice. I don't like math, so I'm gonna make it easy for myself and just assume she would pick up 6% of the vote total, 4% from Trump and 2% from Biden. For this scenario, Jorgensen gets 6% in each state.

Georgia

Trump 45.9 Biden 46.8

North Carolina

Trump 46.1 Biden 46.7

Nevada

Trump 44.7 Biden 47.3

Michigan

Trump 44.6 Biden 47.9

Wisconsin

Trump 44.9 Biden 47.9

Pensylvania

Trump 46.4 Biden 45.5

In this scenario Biden wins 4 out of 6 states and is leading in the other two. If this had happened last night, the election would be all over except the screaming. So why doesn't the DNC push harder for Jo to debate? It's most likely going to help not hurt them for her to perform better. The Libertarian Platform definitely appeals to the right more and most likely "steals" votes from Trump. I also feel that Trump was more vulnerable in 2020 as compared to 2016. So why not let her debate? Three possibilities, least likely to most likely.

1. Biden was worried that she would appeal to the Bernie Bros. This is a legitimate concern. Several parts of Jorgensen's platform would appeal to problems that attracted people to the progressive side of the Democrat party, most notably criminal reform. I feel it is the least likely however, because she would appeal more to the right and hurt Trump more than Biden.

2. Coronavirus. Possible, but unlikely. If it can be safe for two candidates it can be safe for three. I understand that there is support staff and shit but the point stands. If this was given as a reason it was a smoke screen. 

3. The most likely, giving Jorgensen (a middle aged women), a spot on the stage between the two other candidates (old white men) would push her over the 5% and secure the Libertarian Party funding for the next election. This is step 1 to tearing down the status quo and neither the RNC or DNC will willingly allow it to happen.

Burn it down, the choice was between a moderate Democrat claiming to be Republican and a moderate Democrat claiming to be progressive. There was never a choice and it doesn't matter who wins. We are fucked either way. CLICK HERE


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