Gambling and the Presidential Election
The current odds on Predictit.org have Biden ahead 65 to 38 to win the election. In this blog, I will discuss pros/cons of each position as far as gambling on the Election. At the end I will also make some predictions. First, a brief explanation of how the site works. Joe Biden is currently at 65 cents a share to win the electoral college. That means for $65.00 you can buy 100 shares. Then, if he wins, each share is worth $1 netting you $100 and a profit of $35. You can also sell at any point. So, if you buy 100 shares of Trump at 38 cents it costs you $38. If his price goes up to 58 cents you can sell your hundred shares for $58 for a profit of $20. Anyone want in on this and has questions dm me before you sign up and I get you a promo code.
Joe Biden
The pros for this one are fairly obvious. Predicit prices are user driven so most bettors believe he will win. He has the benefit of running against one the most hated candidates in history. I believe this will drive voters to Biden via the Hillary Clinton effect. In 2016, Trump benefited from a significant number of moderate/middle right voters that voted against Hillary as opposed to voting for Trump. I'm seeing a lot of similar feelings regarding voting not Trump from the middle left, moderates, and even middle right voters. The cons? Biden is not a good candidate. His main platform plank is a 4 trillion dollar tax hike. Now whether or not that's a good idea is an argument for another blog, but at face value it does not resonate well with most voters. He also had a very lackluster debate performance. Trump definitely beat himself as opposed to Biden doing anything spectacular. Last con is Biden's base or more importantly, the lack thereof. I reached out to around 30 people I know from different areas of the country that would be considered left of center. I have not found a single person that likes Biden. The most positive response was "I don't dislike him." The reason the Hillary Clinton effect worked so well for Trump in 2016 was that he paired it with a very strong base. The anti-Trump crowd is Biden's base, there is no base of strong pro-Biden voters to pair with the anti-Trump voters. That being said, the anti-Trump voters are definitely a bigger group than the anti-Hillary from 2016. The question remains is the anti-Trump group big enough to win Biden the election?
Donald Trump
The biggest pro for Trump is his base. He has a sizeable core of voters that have been on the Trump train since 2016 and will ride it off a cliff if need be. There is no shaking his base and there is no changing their vote. Trump also has excitement. He is, along with being the most hated, also the most loved candidate in history. His base believes the future of the country is at stake (right or wrong is a discussion for another day) and will show up at the ballot box to defend that future. Also, I believe the media is a pro for Trump. Every time a CNN anchor claims Trump is a racist, white supremacist, rapist, or a criminal it solidifies his base and pushes moderate/middle right voters towards him. Trump, perhaps better than any other person, has changed negative media coverage into a positive by consistently portraying mainstream media as biased against him. CNN, MSNBC, and the NY Times have done nothing to prove him wrong. The cons? The debate. The debate was Trump's to lose and he tried his best to lose it. He appeared to be bullying and petty and did not capitalize on any of the several mistakes by Biden. Another big negative for Trump is his Twitter account and overall attitude. He is a New York asshole and that does not resonate with a large portion of the traditionally conservative voters. Will it be enough to lose him the election?
Coronavirus
This is the unknown at this point. Trump has the rona and it could help or hurt him. At this point I would call it a wash. Trump has access to the best healthcare and there is a 98% or so recovery rate. I know this will disappoint blue checkmark liberal assholes everywhere, but he probably will survive. Long term? If Trump has to cancel a debate I feel like that would hurt him. He is a much better debater than Biden and did not show it in the first debate. As far as Biden, the situation so far is a wash also. He took the high road, wishing the Trumps a speedy recovery, but looked hypocritical doing it 4 days after he called Trump a racist and clown on national TV. He would benefit from less debates, but it would also give Trump's base ammo regarding his supposed dementia. (Side note, I don't think he has dementia, I just think he is not that smart, but I digress.)
Predictions
I think this election is alot closer to 50/50 than Predictit has it. That being said, there is money to be made on both candidates. Trump is a solid place to put some money because he is going to go up. Even if you don't think he will win, you can buy now at 38 cents and sell when he hits 54 to 58 cents a share and make some bank. Biden is also a potential money maker, especially if he does win. I personally think Trump will win and have my money there. Another interesting market is popular vote.
DISCLAIMER
I did my best to write this blog without personal bias. However, in the interest of full disclosure I will state the following.
-I am a registered member of the Republican Party and have been for 19 years.
-I was an anti-Hillary Trump voter in 2016.
-I am currently undecided between Jo Jorgensen and Donald Trump for the 2020 election.
-I think Biden is an idiot and Trump is an asshole.
As I said, I did my best to leave my bias out of the blog, but there is the grain of salt to take with my predictions. Thanks for reading.
Comments
Post a Comment